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As torrential rains reduced output to its lowest level in more than a decade and raised worldwide prices to all-time highs, El Nino’s dry weather threatens to severely hamper coffee production in Indonesia, the fourth largest grower in the world.
Reduced production of robusta beans, which have a stronger and more bitter flavor than arabica beans and are primarily produced in Indonesia, might lead to further increases in coffee prices, which have increased by more than 40% in 2023 and reached a record high in June.
According to Indonesia’s weather agency (BMKG), the El Nino weather phenomenon, which typically brings the tropical nation’s long periods of hot and dry weather, has already had an impact on more than two-thirds of the country, including Java and some parts of Sumatra, two important regions for the production of coffee.
The country of Southeast Asia saw considerable rainfall between 2020 and 2022 as a result of La Nina, and substantial rains were also recorded throughout the first five months of this year, in contrast to the current dry circumstances.
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that Indonesia will produce 9.7 million 60-kg bags of coffee in 2023–24, down from 11.85 million bags in the previous year and the lowest level since 2011–12.
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Drought Threatens Indonesian Coffee Plantations
Given that the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 are critical times for flowering and fruit production, plantations in Sumatra and Java are expected to suffer the most from any drought.
Most coffee plantations in Indonesia are rain-fed. With greater precipitation over Sumatra and Java over the past few months, which decreased coffee production, the fear of dryness has emerged.
Lower yields can result from flowers dropping off before berries mature during the flowering cycle.
The world’s largest source of robusta, Vietnam, produces 2.7 tons of coffee per hectare, whereas yields in Indonesia range from 0.7 to 1.0 metric tons per hectare.
The nearly 1.25 million hectares of coffee plantations in Indonesia are cared for by smallholder farmers who employ conventional planting techniques and minimal fertilizer. There are many old coffee trees, some of which were planted more than 20 years ago.
The government has encouraged farmers to replant trees by offering incentives like free coffee seedlings, discounted fertilizer, and low-interest loans.
Yet, according to government data, only 2% of the entire coffee crop land has been replanted since 2018.
According to Rizal, the government is developing a new program that would include corporate buyers to assist in training producers in appropriate practices and serve as off-takers. He compared the concept to the nation’s nascent plasma farmer system for Indonesia’s largest export, palm oil.
Source: Reuters
