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In the same way that Trump’s allegations that the 2020 election was rigged helped identify candidates as MAGA-aligned in 2022, GOP strategists predict that Trump’s legal trials and his intensifying conflict with the Department of Justice will become a litmus test in the GOP primary process the following year.
Republican strategists and pollsters anticipate that the former president’s criminal proceedings will cause division among the party, making it difficult for the Senate and House Republican candidates who will need to tread carefully on the issue.
Trump’s legal issues, which could be a significant liability for the GOP in the general election, will have to be avoided by candidates running in swing states and districts, especially Republicans aiming to appeal to independent and college-educated women, they say.
Whit Ayres, a well-known Republican pollster, claimed that Trump has significant issues, particularly with women who have college degrees. At this point, they have essentially drifted away from the Republican Party and joined the Democratic coalition, he claimed.
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Balancing Act: Republicans and Trump’s Base
In the same way that Trump’s allegations that the 2020 election was rigged helped identify candidates as MAGA-aligned in 2022, GOP strategists predict that Trump’s legal trials and his intensifying conflict with the Department of Justice will become a litmus test in the GOP primary process the following year.
That does not imply that they have left forever. I believe that many of them could join the Republicans again if they had other candidates and a different message. But at this time, Trump has turned away a significant number of women with college degrees.
Republicans need to be careful not to alienate Trump’s core supporters, who make up an estimated 30 to 40% of the GOP electorate, in contested primaries.
He will be completely useless if he is the nominee in 2024. According to Brandon Scholz, a Republican strategist in Wisconsin, where Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is up for reelection, he will be a burden on the ticket and a burden on Republicans, particularly down-ballot Republicans.
The other half will simply assert that the attack was political in nature, was unjustified, and wasn’t directed at Joe Biden.
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Source: thehill.com
